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GBP/USD trading - US existing home sales - 21 June 2017

GBP/USD trading chart 21 June 2017
4.5
In yesterday's speech at breakfast at the Mansion House, Mark Carney said that it isn’t the time to begin the "adjustment" for the rates since it is necessary to take into account the Brexit negotiation process. On these words, the pound collapsed by 80 points in 15 minutes, and by the close of the day, the decline was 106 points.

GBP/USD trading - Brexit official talks - 19 June 2017

GBP/USD trading chart 19 June 2017
5
The US economic indicators came worse than forecasts and didn’t allow the US dollar to strengthen. In May, the volume of housing starts amounted to 1.09 million against the expectations of 1.215 million. The volume of building permits showed 1.17 million vs. the forecast of 1.25 million. The Michigan consumer confidence fell from 97.1 to 94.5.

GBP/USD trading - US Fed decision - 14 June 2017

GBP/USD trading chart 14 June 2017
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On Tuesday, the British inflation rates turned out to be good. The pound got an excellent chance to correct and added 93 points. The core CPI increased from 2.4% y/y to 2.6% y/y. The total CPI increased from 2.7% y/y to 2.9% y/y. The retail prices also added 0.4% against the forecast of 0.3%. The housing price index added significantly - from 4.5% y/y to 5.6% y/y, with the expectation of a decrease to 3.7% y/y.

GBP/USD trading - US federal budget balance - 12 June 2017

GBP/USD trading chart 12 June 2017
5
On Friday, despite a strong reaction to the results of the parliamentary elections in the UK, the macroeconomic data was very weak. The manufacturing production added 0.2% in April against the forecast of 0.9%. The industrial production added 0.2% against expectations of 0.8%. The construction output collapsed by 1.6% against the forecast of +0.5%.

GBP/USD trading - JOLTS Job Openings - 06 June 2017

GBP/USD trading chart 6 June 2017
5
In the US, the Composite PMI was downgraded from 54.0 to 53.6 against the forecast of 54.1. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI also fell, from 57.5 to 56.9, against the expectation of 57.1. The factory orders decreased by 0.2% in April. In the UK, the Services PMI showed an even lower decline (53.8 vs. 55.8), but the pound strengthened on the general weakening of the US dollar.

GBP/USD trading - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI - 05 June 2017

GBP/USD trading chart 5 June 2017
5
On Friday, the US provided quite good data on the labor market, but the pair GBP/USD unexpectedly showed growth. In May, the NFP showed 138K against the forecast of 185K. The unemployment fell from 4.4% to 4.3%, but due to a decrease in the participation rate from 62.9% to 62.7%. The average hourly earnings increased by a projected 0.2%.

GBP/USD trading - ADP employment change - 01 June 2017

GBP/USD trading chart 1 June 2017
5
The probability of the rate increase by the Fed at the meeting on June 14 rose to 85%. In the UK the number of mortgage approvals declined from 66.04K to 64.64K in April. The recent surveys show that the Conservative Party can lose 20 seats in parliament from those that it has now.

GBP/USD trading - US pending homes sales- 31 May 2017

GBP/USD trading chart 31 May 2017
5
In April, the personal income increased by 0.4%, the spending also by 0.4% - both in line with the forecasts. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index in the 20 largest US cities remained at the previous value of 5.9% y/y against the expectations of a fall to 5.6% y/y. The CB consumer confidence showed 117.9 against the previous 119.4, and the forecast of 120.1.

GBP/USD trading - US existing home sales - 24 May 2017

GBP/USD trading chart 24 May 2017
5
The act of terrorism in Manchester and W. Schäuble's warning to the British that they would learn what a big fault was "Brexit" was quickly eliminated by the markets. In the UK, the CBI distributive trades survey fell from 38 to 2 against the forecast of 12. The net public borrowings increased from 2.34 billion pounds to 9.65 billion pounds in April, against the expectation of 8.0 billion.
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