The UK's retail sales posted a strong rebound as data suggested a rebound in the economy. This came as sales at petrol stations fell and demand for food shopping stayed flat. Most of the gains in the retail sales increase in August came from non-essential items. The data was upbeat with the previous month of July also seeing some upward revisions.
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On the downside, the costs of construction materials were seen increasing which could dampen the outlook. Furthermore, the shortage of skilled workers in the construction sector was another downside risk for the data. But data is expected to be supported by the broader tightening in the labor market and low mortgage rates. Today's binary options trading signal is USDJPY.
Core inflation rate is also expected to rise at a pace of 2.7%. However, this marks the same pace of increase as in the previous month. The inflation data will have a big impact on the British pound. With inflation now strongly above the Bank of England's 2% inflation target, further increase could mean that the central bank will respond by hiking interest rates.
EURUSD is expected to exhibit some sideways price action especially as traders prepare for the ECB's big meeting next week. The markets are expecting the European Central Bank to announce a taper to its QE program. The euro thus remains muted in the near term and ahead of this big announcement.
Economists expect core retail sales to rise 0.9% on the month, accelerating from 0.2% previously while headline retail sales is expected to rise 1.7% on the month after declining 0.2% previously. Combining the last two, there is a strong chance that the data could be positive for the U.S. dollar. However, the risks are also to the downside. And today's binary options signal is for USDJPY.
Economic data in the Eurozone continues to improve at a steady pace. Although inflation remains low, the prospects are high that consumer prices could start to increase from next year. This is expected to bring inflation closer to, if not overshoot the ECB's inflation target rate.
For the markets, the FOMC meeting minutes will likely signal that officials will proceed another rate hike in December. In September when this news was announced, the markets were quickly re-pricing the rate hike prospects. Earlier, investors scaled back their bets on a December rate hike following a weak patch of economic data. Today's binary options signal is USDJPY. The U.S. dollar was seen posting some consolidation near key levels.
There is the risk of the Bank of England which is expected to hike interest rates at its next monetary policy meeting in November. However, this could play out either way with growth slowing and the central bank hiking rates solely to control inflation which has remained above 2% target. Today's binary options signal is GBPJPY.
While the industrial production numbers are likely to see a muted reaction, preliminary data suggests that with the German manufacturing and services PMI posting a steady increase, the data for August could show a rebound, and even rise above the estimates. Today's forex binary signal is EURUSD.
The Federal Reserve had signaled that it was also expecting a weaker print but highlighted that this was due to temporary factors. Therefore, while we expect the markets to ignore today's numbers, there is a risk of a potential upside surprise. A better than expected print could bring back the optimism in the U.S. dollar as the economy would have added better than expected jobs despite the temporary factors. Based on the above, today's forex binary options trading is EURUSD.
EURJPY has been supported in the short term above 132.33 but there is scope for a lower high to be formed here. The Japanese yen is expected to maintain its strength in the near term. As a result, a breakdown below 132.33 could signal in further declines. But note that this is a major support level as well.
A better than expected jobs report data could potentially cement these expectations. But, markets will have to wait until Friday's official payroll numbers for the conviction to be built. It will be a busy day for the U.S. dollar as the ISM's non-manufacturing PMI is also expected to be released ahead of the Fed Chair's speech. Based on the above, today's binary options signal is EURUSD.
The construction sector was badly hit since the June 2016 referendum vote in Britain to leave the EU. The economic uncertainty was felt across all sectors with the construction sector being one of the most affected. Today's binary options trading signal is GBPJPY. The currency pair has been consolidating near the support level of 150.40 for the past few sessions and broke out below this support level.
The Fed and various other officials have already acknowledged that economic indicators could slow for the month of September. Today's binary options trading signal is for USDJPY. The currency pair has been seen trending strongly in the past few weeks but price action has been consolidating above 112.26 level of support. Price action has also stalled above this support level with price failing to post any fresh highs.
We purchase daily CALL options in GBPJPY as it coincides with the support level that has been repeatedly tested. GBPJPY is likely to remain to the upside despite some risks to the British pound. The Japanese yen is seen to be trading much weaker which could give the GBPJPY some upside pressure and thus potentially closing higher on the day.
On a year over year basis, the U.S. economy was seen expanding at a pace of 2.2% for the quarter ending June. This marks a fourth quarterly expansion on a consecutive basis. Besides the GDP numbers, the U.S. core PCE prices data will also be released later this week.
The U.S. department of commerce will be releasing the monthly durable goods orders report at 12:30 GMT today. According to the economists polled, the median estimates point to a 0.2% increase on the core durable goods while the headline durable goods orders are expected to rise 1.1%.
Today's binary options signal is USDJPY. The currency pair has managed to post a strong rally and price action remains well anchored near the top end of the rally. The consolidation could potentially see some sideways price action but the bias is shifting to the downside.
Today's binary options signal is EURGBP. The currency pair attempted to post a recovery last week but trading was subdued. This was after EURGBP posted sharp declines two weeks ago. Price action remains caught within the range of 0.8870 - 0.8794 levels.
The UK Prime Minister, Theresa May will be speaking today as she delivers her Brexit speech to the UK Parliament. This will be an important event as the Brexit threat continues to remain an existential threat. So far, UK officials have been unable to negotiate any concrete deal with the UK.